Will the Patriots Come Out on Top This Year?

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As a coach and coordinator in the National Football League, Bill Belichick has as many rings as the Olympics logo. Belichick sets his expectations high. And then he manages them impeccably.  Which is a good thing.

Fresh off yet another Super Bowl defeat to Tom Coughlin, Eli Manning and the New York Giants, Belichick and the Patriots will open training camp on Thursday with perhaps their deepest roster since the fateful 2007 campaign.  For a team who had just made it to the Super Bowl with an impressive regular season record, their schedule looks relatively soft for the upcoming year.  Although there are no guarantees in sports, particularly in the NFL, as we saw with the 15-1 Green Bay Packers, the Patriots look like a leading candidate to secure a top two seed in the AFC next season, if they stay healthy.  So what could derail this team?  Many things, which Belichick will certainly point out.  Here are five factors worth considering as this team enters their training camp.

• The offensive line is currently in a state of disarray:

This is hardly a minor concern.  Matt Light has retired. Logan Mankins and Sebastian Vollmer will begin camp on the physically unable to perform list.  As for Brian Waters, us outsiders of the Patriots organization believe he is “up in the air.”  That leaves more questions than answers in front of quarterback Tom Brady.

Of course, it is difficult to imagine that Belichick is unprepared for any of this. He must know that Waters is returning. He has resigned both Dan Koppen and Dan Connolly, and he has added Robert Gallery for depth.  He still has Marcus Cannon and Nate Solder, among others. Last season, the Patriots lost Koppen in the season opener at Miami, which obviously didn’t affect them much. 

• The defense:

One of Belichick’s long lasting tenets, is that points matter, not yards.  But the truth is that yards hurt the Patriots in the Super Bowl.   The Giants held the ball for 37:05 to the Patriots 22:55 and the Patriots defense simply could not get off the field.  Beginning in 2007, the Patriots defense has gone from fourth to 10th to 11th to 25th to 31st in yards allowed.  That is the second worst in the league, which really shows how good their offense is. Even Belichick now seems to have conceded that this has been a major problem, spending much of the offseason revamping the defense through the draft and free agency. The Patriots did not sign Mario Williams, but they spent almost all of their draft collateral (including two first-round picks -- Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower) on defense and made a handful of free-agent acquisitions (Jonathan Fanene, Steve Gregory, Trevor Scott).  The development of this defense will without a doubt be one of the major stories of this season.

• The backfield:

As we all know the Patriots are a pass first run second team, as well they should be with an elite quarterback like Tom Brady.  In the final eight games of the past season Brady threw 19 touchdowns and just two interceptions, matching the pace he held during much of the 2010 season.  Belichick added fullback Spencer Larsen to the mix, but the cast of potential ball carriers really seems to include only Joseph Addai, Stevan Ridley, Danny Woodhead and Shane Vereen, none of which are elite runners.  So who gets the ball on 3^rd and 1?  Or do the patriots abandon all pretense and throw?

Remember: after fumbling in a meaningless situation against Denver in the playoffs last year, Ridley never got the ball again. Vereen has 15 attempts in his career. Addai has averaged better than four yards per carry just once in the last four years, and Woodhead is more of a situational back most effective as a runner when operating out of spread formations.  Some of this obviously relates to the state of the offensive line, but will the Patriots have any power running game if and when they need it?

• Injuries, specifically to You Know Who:

The last time the patriots came of a Super Bowl loss, Brady did not make it through the first quarter of the next season opener.  This changed the Patriots entire season, handing the starting position to Matt Cassel, who led them to an 11-5 season, which is widely considered a success in these parts.

Brady turning 35 next week has a lot less time in the hourglass than he did four years ago.  There is every chance someone like Brian Hoyer could lead the Patriots to double digit wins for a 10^th straight season, but every year becomes a little more urgent for Brady to obtain one last ring.  Obviously, keeping Brady out of harm’s way is Priority 1 every season, but this becomes more and more important each year as he ages. 

• History:

History and superstition are always a large part of sports.  Since the Miami Dolphins rebounded from a Super Bowl loss and went undefeated in 1972, no Super Bowl loser has come back to win the title the next season.  In the case of the Patriots, who are now 3-4 in seven Super Bowl appearances, the season after their three previous defeats have produced records of 11-5, 10-6 and 11-5.  These are good regular season records on paper, but we all know the post season is the only thing that matters, and the Pats didn’t make it past the divisional round in any of those years.

In the last five years, the only Super Bowl loser to have even won a playoff game the following year is the Arizona Cardinals who made it to the divisional round in 2009. Pittsburgh lost in the wildcard round last year. Indianapolis lost in the wildcard round the previous season. Prior to Arizona, the Patriots and Chicago Bears missed the playoffs entirely.  Given his attention to detail, Belichick undoubtedly knows this.  He will make sure his players do as well.

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